In 2024 alone, over $20 billion was committed globally to green hydrogen projects, with more than $100 billion in announced investments through 2030. From Saudi Arabia’s $8.4 billion NEOM project to European hydrogen valleys and the US’s tax credit-backed Inflation Reduction Act push, the momentum is real. India is not far behind, with a Rs 19,744 crore ($2.4 billion) National Green Hydrogen Mission. Green hydrogen is India’s ticket to energy independence and leadership in exports.

Yet, only a small fraction of these projects globally have secured financial closures. According to the Hydrogen Council’s Insights 2024, out of the $570 billion pipeline of clean hydrogen projects globally, only 7% ($39.9 bn) have achieved the final investment decision (FID) as of late 2023. That equates to around three million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of hydrogen production capacity (both green and low-carbon) that has officially passed the FID stage. And the gap isn’t just financial; it’s structural, with projects struggling with offtake certainty, cost competitiveness, and regulatory alignment.

India’s orderly surge

While many countries have raced to announce gigawatt-scale ambitions, India’s approach has been more methodical. The National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM) aims to produce 5 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) of green hydrogen by 2030, with a funding allocation of Rs 19,744 crore ($2.4 billion), primarily through subsidies. Furthermore, several states, including Gujarat, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, have announced their incentives. A recent CEEW study estimates that over Rs 5 lakh crore ($61 billion) in state-level subsidies are in the pipeline.

Under the Strategic Interventions for Green Hydrogen Transition (SIGHT) scheme, the government awarded contracts for electrolyser manufacturing (Tranche II) to 13 domestic firms in January 2025, followed by contracts for green hydrogen production (Mode 1 Tranche II) to nine companies in March. These tenders saw encouraging participation, with electrolyser bids reaching 1.5 GW, oversubscribed 2.28 times, and hydrogen production bids for 0.45 MMTPA oversubscribed by 1.22 times. These rounds attracted interest from several private players, including Reliance, NTPC, and Acme Cleantech.

Additionally, the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has begun to play a catalytic role in demand aggregation. Under the SIGHT 2A Green Ammonia auctions, SECI has bundled offtake contracts in select sectors, providing producers with bankable agreements and giving buyers greater visibility on pricing and supply. These auctions have set an important early step towards addressing the jinxed offtake challenge by laying the foundation for a credible domestic market.

Complementing these central measures, Indian states are significantly amplifying the impact of NGHM. A study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) estimates state-level support to be over Rs 5.05 lakh crore ($61 billion), more than 26 times the central outlay of Rs 19,744 crore. These include ₹3.13 lakh crore in power-related incentives, such as electricity duty waivers and transmission subsidies, and ₹1.87 lakh crore in non-power support, including capital subsidies and tax rebates. Odisha, a power-surplus state, is offering Rs 1.25 lakh crore worth of incentives, including a Rs 3 per unit power rebate and a 30% capital subsidy. Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh have rolled out similarly comprehensive packages.

On-ground infrastructure is also taking shape. Tamil Nadu has inked agreements worth ₹14,000 crores in Tuticorin, with hydrogen production expected by 2026–27, backed by a desalination facility and ecosystem support for electrolyser MSMEs. At the national level, green hydrogen hubs are emerging at ports, with 3,400 acres allocated at Deendayal Port in Gujarat for up to 7 MMTPA green ammonia capacity and 501 acres in Tuticorin assigned to ACME, Reliance, and NTPC.

Private sector players are stepping up. ReNew Power has committed ₹26,400 crore for a 0.22 MMTPA project, while Acme Cleantech has committed ₹ 27,000 crore for a 1.1 MMTPA facility. Indian Oil, in collaboration with L&T and ReNew, has launched a 10-TPD plant in Panipat. And most of these firms are also among the tender winners for hydrogen production and electrolyser manufacturing, reflecting deepening domestic capability.

While most projects are still pre-FID, these efforts mark a critical shift from intent to action, positioning India as a serious contender in the global hydrogen economy.

Global capital, local headwinds

Across the globe, a surge in investment is obscuring a critical challenge: bankability. While sovereign wealth funds, multilateral lenders, and climate-tech venture capitalists are pouring in capital, they’re also holding out for greater certainty. Key enablers, such as offtake agreements, certification systems, and carbon pricing frameworks, remain in flux. The stalled Desert Bloom project in Australia, once pitched as a $15 billion marvel, serves as a cautionary tale. Announcements without firm buyers, bankable pricing models, or regulatory clarity risk turning hydrogen from saviour to stranded asset.

What will unlock the next phase?

If India and other emerging markets are serious about leading the hydrogen economy, these things must happen:

1.   Certification & Standards: India’s newly launched Green Hydrogen Standard must be integrated into global markets to enable exports. While the norms are comparable to global standards, this new certification should be recognized by international green hydrogen certification frameworks, particularly those in the European Union, Germany, and Japan, as well as trade forums such as GH2, IEA, and ISO.

2.   Blended Finance & MDB Risk Underwriting: Multilateral development banks should play a catalytic role in de-risking early-stage projects by offering credit enhancements and other risk underwriting tools, including facilitating sovereign guarantees.

3.    Offtake Aggregators: A dedicated entity (public or PPP) to aggregate demand from steel, fertilisers, mobility, and refining could solve the classic chicken-and-egg problem. Industries such as steel, fertilisers, refining, and heavy transport are hesitant because prices are high and supply is untested. A dedicated offtake aggregator, either a government-backed or public-private entity, can bridge this gap by pooling demand across sectors and offering long-term purchase contracts to hydrogen producers.  The Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has begun piloting demand aggregation through recent tenders in the fertiliser sector, where it is signing long-term offtake contracts to provide producers with market certainty. Although still in its initial stage, this model demonstrates how aggregation can reduce risks, attract investment, and ultimately be scaled across multiple industries.

Green hydrogen has moved beyond buzzwords. But money alone won’t fuel the transition. For both global and Indian players, 2025–2026 will be a make-or-break year. Either we create a credible, liquid market, or we get buried under a mountain of stranded electrolysers and broken promises. It’s time for policymakers, investors, and industrial buyers to align on the basics: price, demand, and trust.